Pharmaceutical companies will lose an estimated $65 billion in sales by 2019 due to patent expirations of leading drugs, according to one research and consulting firm.
The companies that will likely be hardest hit include Otsuka, Eli Lilly and AstraZeneca, which has a research and development center in Waltham, according GlobalData.
Eli Lilly and AstraZemeca have seen profits fall in the central nervous system therapeutics market since 2010, with AstraZeneca losing the greatest share over the past three years, said Adam Dion, a GlobalData analyst covering healthcare industry dynamics.
AstraZeneca "has been bleeding sales" in that market since it lost its patent on Seroquel, a treatment for bipolar disorder, which led to the entry of cheaper, generic alternatives, Dion said.
The company's market share has dropped from about 9 percent in 2010 to about 3 percent last year, he said.
"In the United States, when a patent expires on a small-molecule drug, the generics can be many, and you can lose 90 percent of your revenues or more," said Seamus Fernandez, a Leerink Partners analyst. "That kind of competition decreases the sustainability of your revenue stream."
Eli Lilly's market share fell from 14.3 percent in 2010 to 11.2 percent in 2013, primarily due to decreasing sales of Zyprexa, which is used to treat schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, Dion said. Zyprexa sales have plunged from more than $5 billion to $1.2 billion since the company lost its U.S. patent exclusivity in 2011, he said.
Otsuka's anti-psychotic drug Abilify was the sales leader in the central nervous system market, with $9.5 billion last year, Dion said. But the company stands to lose $6.2 billion by 2019 as a result of generic competition after Abilify's U.S. patent expires next year, "making it the biggest victim of the pharmaceutical industry's current patent cliff," he said.
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